Effects of Temperature and Precipitation Variability on Snowpack Trends in the Western United States*
Why is this work in the frame?
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame — the usual design — would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.
Machine scores (provisional)
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
- Teacher spread
- 0.235 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
- Validation status
score_only:v0-immature-baseline· verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it
Abstract
Abstract Recent studies have shown substantial declines in snow water equivalent (SWE) over much of the western United States in the last half century, as well as trends toward earlier spring snowmelt and peak spring streamflows. These trends are influenced both by interannual and decadal-scale climate variability, and also by temperature trends at longer time scales that are generally consistent with observations of global warming over the twentieth century. In this study, the linear trends in 1 April SWE over the western United States are examined, as simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model implemented at 1/8° latitude–longitude spatial resolution, and driven by a carefully quality controlled gridded daily precipitation and temperature dataset for the period 1915–2003. The long simulations of snowpack are used as surrogates for observations and are the basis for an analysis of regional trends in snowpack over the western United States and southern British Columbia, Canada. By isolating the trends due to temperature and precipitation in separate simulations, the influence of temperature and precipitation variability on the overall trends in SWE is evaluated. Downward trends in 1 April SWE over the western United States from 1916 to 2003 and 1947 to 2003, and for a time series constructed using two warm Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) epochs concatenated together, are shown to be primarily due to widespread warming. These temperature-related trends are not well explained by decadal climate variability associated with the PDO. Trends in SWE associated with precipitation trends, however, are very different in different time periods and are apparently largely controlled by decadal variability rather than longer-term trends in climate.
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The record
- Venue
- Journal of Climate
- Topic
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Field
- Earth and Planetary Sciences
- Canadian institutions
- —
- Funders
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationJoint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean
- Keywords
- SnowpackClimatologyEnvironmental sciencePrecipitationPacific decadal oscillationSnowSnowmeltCruLatitudeClimate changeLongitudeEl Niño Southern OscillationGeographyMeteorologyGeology
- Has abstract in OpenAlex
- yes