Indicator Random Variables in Traffic Analysis and the Birthday Problem
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper proposes using collisions of Pareto random variables in traffic analysis and in generating fictitious network traffic that follows various Pareto distributions. Pareto distributions are commonly found in network statistics, but the distributions may be truncated or overlapping, thus making it hard to estimate their sample parameters. Therefore, this paper investigates methods of computing parameters of binned collisions of Pareto random variables. This paper explores an indicator variable approach to analyzing collisions of Pareto random variables. These collisions are initially modeled by the birthday problem or paradox and then they are extended to understand independence of collisions. This paper's use of indicator variables simplifies the calculation of higher moments for binned collisions of Pareto random variables
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.012 | 0.051 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.010 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".