Principles of the Atmospheric Pathway for Invasive Species Applied to Soybean Rust
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Aerial transport alone is seldom responsible for the introduction of nonindigenous species into distant regions; however, the capacity to use the atmospheric pathway for rapid spread in large part determines the invasive potential of organisms once they are introduced. Because physical and biological features of Earth's surface influence the routes and timing of organisms that use the atmospheric pathway, long-distance movement of aerobiota is largely regular and thus predictable. Soybean rust (Phakopsora pachyrhizi), potentially the most destructive foliar disease of soybean, recently invaded North America. The concepts presented in this article form the basis of the soybean rust aerobiology prediction system (SRAPS) that was developed to assess potential pathogen movement from South America to the United States. Output from SRAPS guided the scouting operations after the initial discovery of soybean rust in Louisiana. Subsequent observations of P. pachyrhizi in the southeastern United States provide validation of the modeling effort.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".