The Keck Planet Search: Detectability and the Minimum Mass and Orbital Period Distribution of Extrasolar Planets
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We analyze 8 years of precise radial velocity measurements from the Keck Planet Search, characterizing the detection threshold, selection effects, and completeness of the survey. We carry out a systematic search for planets by assessing the false alarm probability associated with Keplerian orbit fits to the data. This allows us to understand the detection threshold for each star in terms of the number and time baseline of the observations, and size of measurement errors and stellar jitter. We show that all planets with orbital periods <2000 days, velocity amplitudes >20 m/s, and eccentricities <0.6 have been announced, and summarize the candidates at lower amplitudes and longer orbital periods. For the remaining stars, we calculate upper limits on the velocity amplitude of a companion, typically 10 m/s, and use the non-detections to derive completeness corrections at low amplitudes and long orbital periods. We give the fraction of stars with a planet as a function of planet mass and orbital period, and extrapolate to long period orbits and low planet masses. A power law fit for planet masses >0.3 Jupiter masses and periods <2000 days gives a mass-period distribution dN=C M^\alpha P^\beta dlnM dlnP with \alpha=-0.31 \pm 0.2, \beta=0.26\pm 0.1, and the normalization constant C such that 10.5% of solar type stars have a planet with mass in the range 0.3-10 Jupiter masses and orbital period 2-2000 days. The orbital period distribution shows an increase in the planet fraction by a factor of 5 for orbital periods beyond 300 days. Extrapolation gives 17-20% of stars having gas giant planets within 20 AU. Finally, taking into account differences in detectability, we find that M dwarfs are 3 to 10 times less likely to harbor a Jupiter mass planet than solar type stars.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it