Structural Data on Immigration or Immigration Perceptions? What Accounts for the Electoral Success of the Radical Right in Europe?
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Targeting immigrants as a threat to employment, security and cultural cohesion, the radical right has averaged 10 percent of the vote in elections. What drives this vote? Are voters affected by the numbers of foreign‐born individuals in a geographical region, by negative perceptions about immigrants, or both? In this article, I entertain the possibility that it is not the number of foreigners but citizens’ perceptions about immigrants that explain individuals’ tendencies to vote for the radical right. To test this stipulation, I combine European Social Survey (ESS) data on individual perceptions of immigrants for more than 25,000 individuals with macro‐level data on the actual percentage of foreign‐born citizens across 200 European regions. Using a bivariate and multivariate framework, I highlight that it is only the individual perceptions of immigration indicator, and not the number of foreign‐born citizens, that is positively related to higher support for radical right‐wing parties.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it