Observed Impact of Atlantic SST Anomalies on the North Atlantic Oscillation
Why is this work in the frame?
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame — the usual design — would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.
Machine scores (provisional)
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
- Teacher spread
- 0.204 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
- Validation status
score_only:v0-immature-baseline· verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it
Abstract
The large-scale patterns of covariability between monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and 500-mb height anomalies (Z500) in the Atlantic sector are investigated as a function of time lag in the NCEP‐NCAR reanalysis (1958‐97). In agreement with previous studies, the dominant signal is the atmospheric forcing of SST anomalies, but statistically significant covariances are also found when SST leads Z500 by several months. In winter, a PanAtlantic SST pattern precedes the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) by up to 6 months. Such long lead time covariance is interpreted in the framework of the stochastic climate model, reflecting the forcing of the NAO by persistent Atlantic SST anomalies. A separate analysis of midlatitudes (208‐708N) and tropical (208S‐208N) SST anomalies reveals that the bulk of the NAO signal comes from the midlatitudes. A dipolar anomaly, with warm SST southeast of Newfoundland and cold SST to the northeast and southeast, precedes a positive phase of the NAO, and it should provide a prediction of up to 15% of its monthly variance several months in advance. Since the ‘‘forcing’’ SST pattern projects significantly onto the tripole pattern generated by the NAO, these results indicate a positive feedback between the SST tripole and the NAO, with a strength of up to . 25 mK 21 at 500 mb or 2‐3 mb K21 at sea level. Additionally, a warming of the tropical Atlantic (208S‐208N), roughly symmetric about the equator, induces a negative NAO phase in early winter. This tropical forcing of the NAO is nearly uncorrelated with and weaker than that resulting from the midlatitudes, and is associated with shorter lead times and reduced predictive skill.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
The record
- Venue
- Journal of Climate
- Topic
- Climate variability and models
- Field
- Environmental Science
- Canadian institutions
- —
- Funders
- —
- Keywords
- North Atlantic oscillationClimatologyAtlantic multidecadal oscillationAtlantic Equatorial modeGulf StreamOceanographyGeologyTropical AtlanticNorth Atlantic Deep WaterAtlantic hurricaneEnvironmental scienceSea surface temperatureThermohaline circulationTropical cyclone
- Has abstract in OpenAlex
- yes