Seasonal influenza vaccination and the risk of infection with pandemic influenza: a possible illustration of non-specific temporary immunity following infection
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Four Canadian studies have suggested that receipt of seasonal influenza vaccine increased the risk of laboratory-confirmed infection with 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1). During the influenza season of 2009 in Victoria, Australia, this virus comprised 97% of all circulating influenza viruses for which sub-typing was available. We found no evidence that seasonal influenza vaccine increased the risk of, or provided protection against, infection with the pandemic virus. Ferret experiments have suggested protection against pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 from multiple prior seasonal influenza infections but not from prior seasonal vaccination. Modelling studies suggest that influenza infection leads to heterosubtypic temporary immunity which is initially almost complete. We suggest these observations together can explain the apparent discrepant findings in Canada and Victoria. In Victoria there was no recent prior circulation of seasonal influenza and thus no temporary immunity to pandemic influenza. There was no association of seasonal influenza vaccine with pandemic influenza infection. In Canada seasonal influenza preceded circulation of the pandemic virus. An unvaccinated proportion of the population developed temporary immunity to pandemic influenza from seasonal infection but a proportion of vaccinated members of the population did not get seasonal infection and hence did not develop temporary immunity to pandemic influenza. It may therefore have appeared as if seasonal vaccination increased the risk of infection with pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it