Bibliographic record
Abstract
Obtaining predictions from regression models fit to multiply imputed data can be challenging because treatments of multiple imputation seldom give clear guidance on how predictions can be calculated, and because available software often does not have built-in routines for performing the necessary calculations. This research note reviews how predictions can be obtained using Rubin’s rules, that is, by being estimated separately in each imputed data set and then combined. It then demonstrates that predictions can also be calculated directly from the final analysis model. Both approaches yield identical results when predictions rely solely on linear transformations of the coefficients and calculate standard errors using the delta method and diverge only slightly when using nonlinear transformations. However, calculation from the final model is faster, easier to implement, and generates predictions with a clearer relationship to model coefficients. These principles are illustrated using data from the General Social Survey and with a simulation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.032 | 0.176 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.004 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".