A Tensor-Based Information Framework for Predicting the Stock Market
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
To study the influence of information on the behavior of stock markets, a common strategy in previous studies has been to concatenate the features of various information sources into one compound feature vector, a procedure that makes it more difficult to distinguish the effects of different information sources. We maintain that capturing the intrinsic relations among multiple information sources is important for predicting stock trends. The challenge lies in modeling the complex space of various sources and types of information and studying the effects of this information on stock market behavior. For this purpose, we introduce a tensor-based information framework to predict stock movements. Specifically, our framework models the complex investor information environment with tensors. A global dimensionality-reduction algorithm is used to capture the links among various information sources in a tensor, and a sequence of tensors is used to represent information gathered over time. Finally, a tensor-based predictive model to forecast stock movements, which is in essence a high-order tensor regression learning problem, is presented. Experiments performed on an entire year of data for China Securities Index stocks demonstrate that a trading system based on our framework outperforms the classic Top- N trading strategy and two state-of-the-art media-aware trading algorithms.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.009 | 0.021 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it