Local linear regression versus backcalculation in forecasting
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The local linear forecasting estimator is proposed in this thesis as an alternative technique to either parametric regression or the backcalculation approach in the context of forecasting for independent data. The asymptotic bias and variance of the local linear forecasting estimator are derived and used to develop procedures for the estimation of the optimal bandwidth for forecasting. Both the theoretical and the computational aspects of these procedures are explored. Simulation study shows that a cross-validation procedure has the best performance in forecasting among four bandwidth estimation procedures under study. Simulations and statistical analyses show that the backcalculation approach is very vulnerable to violations of the assumptions underlying this approach and that its application to AIDS data fails to achieve its two primary goals, to forecast the numbers of new AIDS cases and to estimate the historical HIV infection curve. To test the proposed forecasting estimator over parametric regression, both techniques are applied to the Canadian AIDS data and the UK AIDS data. The results of the two examples expose the weakness of parametric regression and show that the proposed technique does better than parametric regression in forecasting.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it