Setting the Standard: Commercial Electricity Consumption Responses to Energy Codes
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The adoption rate of building energy standards in the US has been increasing since the mid- \n1990s as a result of the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct). However, most of the evidence on the \nenergy savings that accrue from commercial building energy standards is based on engineering \nsimulations, which do not account for realized behavior once a standard is actually adopted. \nThis paper uses plausibly exogenous variation in commercial building energy standard adoptions, \ncombined with a unique state-level dataset on electricity consumption, energy prices, and the \nprevalence of “plus-utilities” tenancy contracts in commercial buildings, to estimate the realized \nelectricity consumption response to commercial energy codes. The results suggest that in states \nwith a large fraction of post-EPAct new construction under a code, per capita commercial \nelectricity consumption is lower by about 13%. In addition, a one percentage point increase in \nthe rate of tenancy contracts where tenants pay directly for energy utilities is associated with a \n1% decrease in per capita electricity demand. The realized energy savings are less than half of \npredicted simulated savings.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it