Impact of Ural Blocking on Winter Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasian Anomalies. Part I: Blocking-Induced Amplification
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No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame — the usual design — would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.
Machine scores (provisional)
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
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- Teacher spread
- 0.242 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
- Validation status
score_only:v0-immature-baseline· verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it
Abstract
Abstract In Part I of this study, the impact of Ural blocking (UB) on the warm Arctic–cold Eurasian (WACE) pattern associated with the winter (DJF) arctic sea ice loss during 1979–2013 is examined by dividing the arctic sea ice reduction region into two dominant subregions: the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS) and the North American high-latitude (NAH) region (Baffin and Hudson Bay, Davis Strait, and Labrador Sea). It is found that atmospheric response to arctic sea ice loss resembles a negative Arctic response oscillation with a dominant positive height anomaly over the Eurasian subarctic region. Regression analyses of the two subregions further show that the sea ice loss over the BKS corresponds to the UB pattern together with a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO + ) and is followed by a WACE anomaly, while the sea ice reduction in the NAH region corresponds to a negative NAO (NAO − ) pattern with a cold anomaly over northern Eurasia. Further analyses reveal that the UB pattern is more persistent during the period 2000–13 (P2) than 1979–99 (P1) because of the reduced middle-to-high-latitude mean westerly winds over Eurasia associated with the intense BKS warming. During P2 the establishment of the UB becomes a slow process because of the role of the BKS warming, while its decay is slightly rapid. In the presence of the long-lived UB that often occurs with the NAO + , the BKS-warming-induced DJF-mean anticyclonic anomaly is intensified and widened and then expands southward during P2 to amplify the WACE pattern and induce the southward displacement of its cold anomaly and the further loss of the BKS sea ice. Thus, midlatitude Eurasian cold events should be more frequent as the sea ice loss continues over the BKS.
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The record
- Venue
- Journal of Climate
- Topic
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Field
- Earth and Planetary Sciences
- Canadian institutions
- —
- Funders
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
- Keywords
- ClimatologyArctic oscillationArcticAnomaly (physics)Sea iceSubarctic climateGeologyArctic ice packNorth Atlantic oscillationAnticycloneArctic dipole anomalyArctic sea ice declineBayLatitudeSiberian HighOceanographyAtmospheric sciencesNorthern HemisphereAntarctic sea iceGeography
- Has abstract in OpenAlex
- yes