Consumption-portfolio optimization and filtering in a hidden Markov-modulated asset price model
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We study a consumption-portfolio optimization problem in a hidden Markov-modulated asset price model with multiple risky assets, where model uncertainty is present. Under this modeling framework, the appreciation rates of risky shares are modulated by a continuous-time, finite-state hidden Markov chain whose states represent different modes of the model. We consider the situation where an economic agent only has access to information about the price processes of risky shares and aims to maximize the expected, discounted utility from intermediate consumption and terminal wealth within a finite horizon. The standard innovations approach in filtering theory is then used to transform the partially observed consumption-portfolio optimization problem to the one with complete observations. Robust filters of the chain and estimates of some other parameters are presented. Using the stochastic maximum principle, we derive a closed-form solution of an optimal consumption-portfolio strategy in the case of a power utility.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it