Extra-Tropical and Tropical Cyclone Vulnerability in Canada: Two Comprehensive Models
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Natural hazards, particularly extra-tropical (winter storms) and tropical cyclones, could have devastating impacts on human life, structures, the environment, and the economy. It has not been long enough to forget the destructive impacts of the 1998 ice storm and, more recently, the costly impact of Hurricane Irene in 2011. In terms of today's economy, the 1998 ice storm would have caused insured and economic losses of about 3 and 6 billion Canadian dollars (CAD), respectively. More recently, Hurricane Irene left an impact across Ontario, Quebec, and New Brunswick, causing approximately 200 million CAD in damage to insured properties. To estimate possible damage and losses within Canada due to extra-tropical cyclones, a comprehensive probabilistic model was developed which incorporates the meteorological hazards (wind, snow, freezing temperatures, and ice accumulation) and the associated vulnerability of Canadian built structures. In addition, a methodology for accounting for the temporal and regional vulnerability of structures was also implemented, reflecting changes in the wind and snow load design methodologies as well as the construction practices in Canada. A similar approach is used to develop a model for assessing the tropical cyclone risk in Canada.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it