Credit Scoring Models for a Tunisian Microfinance Institution: Comparison between Artificial Neural Network and Logistic Regression
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper compares, for a microfinance institution, the performance of two individual classification models: Logistic Regression (Logit) and Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP), to evaluate the credit risk problem and discriminate good creditors from bad ones. Credit scoring systems are currently in common use by numerous financial institutions worldwide. However, credit scoring using a non-parametric statistical technique with the microfinance industry, is a relatively recent application. In Tunisia, no model which employs a non-parametric statistical technique has yet, as far as we know, been published. This lack is surprising since the implementation of credit scoring should contribute towards the efficiency of microfinance institutions, thereby improving their competitiveness. This paper builds a non-parametric credit scoring model based on the Multi-Layer perceptron approach (MLP) and benchmarks its performance against Logistic Regression (LR) techniques. Based on a sample of 300 borrowers from a Tunisian microfinance institution, the results reveal that Logistic Regression outperforms neural network models.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".