Automated parameter optimization of classification techniques for defect prediction models
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Defect prediction models are classifiers that are trained to identify defect-prone software modules. Such classifiers have configurable parameters that control their characteristics (e.g., the number of trees in a random forest classifier). Recent studies show that these classifiers may underperform due to the use of suboptimal default parameter settings. However, it is impractical to assess all of the possible settings in the parameter spaces. In this paper, we investigate the performance of defect prediction models where Caret --- an automated parameter optimization technique --- has been applied. Through a case study of 18 datasets from systems that span both proprietary and open source domains, we find that (1) Caret improves the AUC performance of defect prediction models by as much as 40 percentage points; (2) Caret-optimized classifiers are at least as stable as (with 35% of them being more stable than) classifiers that are trained using the default settings; and (3) Caret increases the likelihood of producing a top-performing classifier by as much as 83%. Hence, we conclude that parameter settings can indeed have a large impact on the performance of defect prediction models, suggesting that researchers should experiment with the parameters of the classification techniques. Since automated parameter optimization techniques like Caret yield substantially benefits in terms of performance improvement and stability, while incurring a manageable additional computational cost, they should be included in future defect prediction studies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.045 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".