Risk of Malignant Cancer Among Women With New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
IMPORTANCE: A substantial proportion of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) die of noncardiovascular causes, and recent studies suggest a link between AF and cancer. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the associations between AF and cancer in a large, long-term prospective cohort study. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this cohort study, a total of 34 691 women 45 years or older and free of AF, cardiovascular disease, and cancer at baseline were prospectively followed up between 1993 and 2013, for incident AF and malignant cancer within the Women's Health Study, a randomized clinical trial of aspirin and vitamin E for the prevention of cardiovascular disease and cancer. Cox proportional hazards models using time-updated covariates were constructed to assess the association of new-onset AF with subsequent cancer and to adjust for potential confounders. Data analysis was performed from December 2014 to May 2015. EXPOSURE: New-onset AF. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Incident malignant cancer confirmed by an end point committee. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 19.1 years of 34 691 study participants (interquartile range [IQR], 17.6-19.7 years), new-onset AF and malignant cancer were confirmed among 1467 (4.2%) and 5130 (14.8%) participants, respectively. Median age at baseline among participants with new-onset AF and new-onset cancer during follow-up was 58 years (IQR, 52-64 years) and 55 years (IQR, 50-61 years), respectively. Atrial fibrillation was a significant risk factor for incident cancer in age-adjusted (hazard ratio [HR], 1.58; 95% CI, 1.34-1.87; P < .001) and multivariable-adjusted (HR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.25-1.75; P < .001) models. The relative risk of cancer was highest in the first 3 months after new-onset AF (HR, 3.54; 95% CI, 2.05-6.10; P < .001) but remained significant beyond 1 year after new-onset AF (adjusted HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.18-1.71; P < .001), and a trend toward an increased cancer mortality was observed (adjusted HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 0.98-1.79; P = .07). In contrast, among women with new-onset cancer, the relative risk of AF was increased only within the first 3 months (HR, 4.67; 95% CI, 2.85-7.64; P < .001) but not thereafter (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 0.95-1.39; P = .15). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this large, initially healthy cohort, women with new-onset AF had an elevated cancer risk beyond 1 year of AF diagnosis. Shared risk factors and/or common systemic disease processes might underlie this association.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".