Bibliographic record
Abstract
There are many instances where those involved in energy products must make decisions under conditions of uncertainty. An oil producer must decide how much inventory to stock; a risk manger how much economic capital to set aside, and an electricity speculator when to buy or sell. In each of these cases the individuals make their decision on the basis of what they think is likely to occur; their decision is based on the probability that certain events will or will not happen. Most of us have some intuitive understanding of probability. Some people prefer to take the train to their place of work in the knowledge that a serious accident is less likely than if they drive. Others participate in high risk sports such as boxing or sailing, knowing that they are likely to face serious injury or death, but then again the likelihood of such extreme outcomes is actually quite small. Millions of individuals purchase lottery tickets even though the likelihood of wining a very large pay-out is extremely small. If we say that the probability of snow today is one-half, but tomorrow it is only one quarter, we know that snow is more likely today than tomorrow.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.013 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.037 | 0.011 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".