Climate change in the North China Plain: smallholder farmer perceptions and adaptations in Quzhou County, Hebei Province
Bibliographic record
Abstract
CR Climate Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsSpecials CR 69:261-273 (2016) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01407 Climate change in the North China Plain: smallholder farmer perceptions and adaptations in Quzhou County, Hebei Province David Chen1, Joann K. Whalen2,* 1Faculty of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences and 2Department of Natural Resource Sciences, McGill University, Macdonald Campus, 21111 Lakeshore Road, Ste-Anne-de-Bellevue QC H9X 3V9, Canada *Corresponding author: joann.whalen@mcgill.ca ABSTRACT: Climate change is expected to negatively affect production of winter wheat and maize in the North China Plain (NCP). This study examines the perceptions and adaptations to climate change of farmers in Quzhou County in the NCP. Structured interviews were held with 37 smallholder farmers to determine their perceptions of and adaptations to climate change in the past 30 yr. Historical meteorological data (1980 to 2010) showed a significant increase in mean annual temperature of 1.7°C over 30 yr and no significant change in mean annual rainfall, but farmers perceive increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall during this period. We hypothesize that this leads farmers to irrigate more, due to their perception that the changing temperature and precipitation regime is increasing crop water stress. Further increase in annual temperature predicted for the NCP will intensify irrigation and deplete the groundwater reserves used for irrigation in this area. Farmers in the NCP require decision-making tools to develop sustainable irrigation practices for long-term adaptation to climate change. KEY WORDS: Agriculture · Climate change · Meteorological data · Participatory methods Full text in pdf format Supplementary material PreviousCite this article as: Chen D, Whalen JK (2016) Climate change in the North China Plain: smallholder farmer perceptions and adaptations in Quzhou County, Hebei Province. Clim Res 69:261-273. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01407 Export citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in CR Vol. 69, No. 3. Online publication date: August 29, 2016 Print ISSN: 0936-577X; Online ISSN: 1616-1572 Copyright © 2016 Inter-Research.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".