THE EFFECTS OF ANALYST FORECAST PROPERTIES AND COUNTRY‐LEVEL INSTITUTIONS ON THE COST OF DEBT
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We investigate the link between analyst forecast characteristics and the cost of debt financing in international markets, and the influence of country‐level institutions. Using a sample of 3,768 bond issues from 42 non‐U.S. countries from 1996 to 2014, we find statistically and economically significant evidence that analysts lower bond yield spreads. Furthermore, this relation is stronger in firms operating in countries with weak institutions governing property rights, creditor protection, and disclosure standards. Overall, our findings imply that financial analysts play an important role as information intermediaries, and show that this relation is especially important in countries with weak institutional environments.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.049 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it