Using seafaring simulations and shortest-hop trajectories to model the prehistoric colonization of Remote Oceania
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Significance The colonization of Remote Oceania between ∼3400 and 800 B.P.—from multiple origin points and across hundreds or thousands of kilometers of open ocean—represents some of the most impressive population dispersals on Earth. For decades, scholars have sought to explain when and how these occurred. Here we show that seafaring simulation techniques coupled with sophisticated analyses of climatic data, including the role of El Niño Southern Oscillation events and island distribution on ancient voyaging, are critical comparative tools for understanding the variables—culturally, technologically, and environmentally—that structured movement across the world’s largest ocean. These data also pinpoint likely departure points for ancient Pacific Islanders that in some cases support or negate current archaeological and other lines of evidence.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it