A Predictive Model for Medical Events Based on Contextual Embedding of Temporal Sequences
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Medical concepts are inherently ambiguous and error-prone due to human fallibility, which makes it hard for them to be fully used by classical machine learning methods (eg, for tasks like early stage disease prediction). OBJECTIVE: Our work was to create a new machine-friendly representation that resembles the semantics of medical concepts. We then developed a sequential predictive model for medical events based on this new representation. METHODS: We developed novel contextual embedding techniques to combine different medical events (eg, diagnoses, prescriptions, and labs tests). Each medical event is converted into a numerical vector that resembles its "semantics," via which the similarity between medical events can be easily measured. We developed simple and effective predictive models based on these vectors to predict novel diagnoses. RESULTS: We evaluated our sequential prediction model (and standard learning methods) in estimating the risk of potential diseases based on our contextual embedding representation. Our model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of 0.79 on chronic systolic heart failure and an average AUC of 0.67 (over the 80 most common diagnoses) using the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) dataset. CONCLUSIONS: We propose a general early prognosis predictor for 80 different diagnoses. Our method computes numeric representation for each medical event to uncover the potential meaning of those events. Our results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method, which will benefit patients and physicians by offering more accurate diagnosis.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".