Generalized Multiplicative Error Models: Asymptotic Inference and Empirical Analysis
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This dissertation consists of two parts.The first part focuses on extended Multiplicative Error Models (MEM) that include two extreme cases for nonnegative series.These extreme cases are common phenomena in high-frequency financial time series.The Location MEM(p,q) model incorporates a location parameter so that the series are required to have positive lower bounds.The estimator for the location parameter turns out to be the minimum of all the observations and is shown to be consistent.The second case captures the nontrivial fraction of zero outcomes feature in a series and combines a so-called Zero-Augmented general F distribution with linear MEM(p,q).Under certain strict stationary and moment conditions, we establish a consistency and asymptotic normality of the semiparametric estimation for these two new models.The second part of this dissertation examines the differences and similarities between trades in the home market and trades in the foreign market of cross-listed stocks.We exploit the multiplicative framework to model trading duration, volume ii per trade and price volatility for Canadian shares that are cross-listed in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX).We explore the clustering effect, interaction between trading variables, and the time needed for price equilibrium after a perturbation for each market.The clustering effect is studied through the use of univariate MEM(1,1) on each variable, while the interactions among duration, volume and price volatility are captured by a multivariate system of MEM(p,q).After estimating these models by a standard QMLE procedure, we exploit the Impulse Response function to compute the calendar time for a perturbation in these variables to be absorbed into price variance, and use common statistical tests to identify the difference between the two markets in each aspect.These differences are of considerable interest to traders, stock exchanges and policy makers.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it