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Effects of waveform model systematics on the interpretation of GW150914
B. P. Abbott, R. Abbott, T. D. Abbott, M. R. Abernathy, F. Acernese, K. Ackley, C. Adams, T. Adams, P. Addesso, R. X. Adhikari, V. B. Adya, C. Affeldt, M. Agathos, K. Agatsuma, N. Aggarwal, O. D. Aguiar, L. Aiello, A. Ain, P. Ajith, B. Allen, A. Allocca, P. A. Altin, A. Ananyeva, S. B. Anderson, W. G. Anderson, S. Appert, K. Arai, M. C. Araya, J. S. Areeda, N. Arnaud, K. G. Arun, S. Ascenzi, G. Ashton, M. Ast, S. M. Aston, P. Astone, P. Aufmuth, C. Aulbert, A. Avila-Alvarez, S. Babak, P. Bacon, M. K. M. Bader, P. T. Baker, F. Baldaccini, G. Ballardin, S. W. Ballmer, J. C. Barayoga, S. E. Barclay, B. C. Barish, D. Barker, F. Barone, B. Barr, L. Barsotti, M. Barsuglia, D. Barta, J. Bartlett, I. Bartos, R. Bassiri, A. Basti, J. C. Batch, C. Baune, V. Bavigadda, M. Bazzan, C. Beer, M. Bejger, I. Belahcene, Mehmet Belgin, A. S. Bell, B. K. Berger, G. Bergmann, C. P. L. Berry, D. Bersanetti, A. Bertolini, J. Betzwieser, S. Bhagwat, R. Bhandare, I. A. Bilenko, G. Billingsley, C. R. Billman, J. Birch, R. Birney, O. Birnholtz, S. Biscans, A. Bisht, M. Bitossi, C. Biwer, M. A. Bizouard, J. K. Blackburn, Jonathan Blackman, C. D. Blair, D. G. Blair, R. M. Blair, S. Bloemen, O. Bock, M. Boër, G. Bogaert, A. Bohé, F. Bondu, R. Bonnand, B. A. Boom, R. Bork, V. Boschi, S. Bose, Y. Bouffanais, A. Bozzi, C. Bradaschia, P. R. Brady, V. B. Braginsky, M. Branchesi, J. Brau, T. Briant, A. Brillet, M. Brinkmann, V. Brisson, P. Brockill, J. E. Broida, A. F. Brooks, D. Brown, N. M. Brown, S. Brunett, C. C. Buchanan, A. Buikema, T. Bulik, H. J. Bulten, A. Buonanno, D. Buskulic, C. Buy, R. L. Byer, M. Cabero, L. Cadonati, G. Cagnoli, C. Cahillane, J. Calderón Bustillo, T. A. Callister, E. Calloni, J. B. Camp, K. C. Cannon, H. Cao, J. Cao, C. D. Capano, E. Capocasa, F. Carbognani, S. Caride, J. Casanueva Diaz, C. Casentini, S. Caudill, M. Cavaglià, F. Cavalier, R. Cavalieri, G. Cella, C. Cepeda, L. Cerboni Baiardi, G. Cerretani, E. Cesarini, S. J. Chamberlin, M. Chan, S. Chao, P. Charlton, E. Chassande‐Mottin, B. D. Cheeseboro, H Y Chen, Y Chen, H-P Cheng, A. Chincarini, A. Chiummo, T. Chmiel, H S Cho, M. Cho, J. H. Chow, N. Christensen, Q. Chu, Alvin J. K. Chua, S. Chua, S. Chung, G. Ciani, F. Clara, J. A. Clark, F. Cleva, C. Cocchieri, E. Coccia, P-F Cohadon, A. Colla, Christophe Collette, L. Cominsky, M. Constancio, L. Conti, S. J. Cooper, T. R. Corbitt, Neil J. Cornish, A. Corsi, S. Cortese, C. A. Costa, M. W. Coughlin, S. B. Coughlin, J.‐P. Coulon, S. T. Countryman, P. Couvares, P. B. Covas, E. E. Cowan, D. M. Coward, M. J. Cowart, D. C. Coyne, R. Coyne, J. D. E. Creighton, J. Cripe, S. G. Crowder, T. J. Cullen, A. Cumming, L. Cunningham, E. Cuoco, T. Dal Canton, S. L. Danilishin, S. D’Antonio, K. Danzmann, Anirban Dasgupta, C. F. Da Silva Costa, V. Dattilo, I. Dave, M. Davier, G. S. Davies, D. Davis, E. J. Daw, B. Day, R. Day, D. DeBra, G. Debreczeni, J. Degallaix, M. De Laurentis, S. Deléglise, W. Del Pozzo, T. Denker, T. Dent, V. Dergachev, R. De Rosa, R. T. DeRosa, R. DeSalvo, J. Devenson, R. C. Devine, S. Dhurandhar, M. C. Díaz, L. Di Fiore, M. Di Giovanni, T. Di Girolamo, A. Di Lieto, S. Di Pace, I. Di Palma, A. Di Virgilio, Z. Doctor, V. Dolique, F. Donovan, K. L. Dooley, S. Doravari, I. Dorrington, R. Douglas, M. Dovale Álvarez, T. P. Downes, M. Drago, R. W. P. Drever, J. C. Driggers, Zhihui Du, S. E. Dwyer, T. B. Edo, M. C. Edwards, A. Effler, H-B Eggenstein, P. Ehrens, J. Eichholz, S. S. Eikenberry, R. A. Eisenstein, R. C. Essick, Z. B. Etienne, T. Etzel, M. Evans, T. Evans, R. Everett, M. Factourovich, V. Fafone, H. Fair, S. Fairhurst, X. Fan, S. Farinon, B. Farr, Will M. Farr, E. J. Fauchon-Jones, M. Favata, M. Fays, H. Fehrmann, M. M. Fejer, A. Fernández Galiana, I. Ferrante, E. C. Ferreira, F. Ferrini, F. Fidecaro, I. Fiori, D. Fiorucci, R. P. Fisher, R. Flaminio, M. Fletcher, S. S. Forsyth, J-D Fournier, S. Frasca, F. Frasconi, Z. Frei, A. Freise, R. Frey, E. M. Fries, P. Fritschel, В. В. Фролов, P. Fulda, M. Fyffe, H. Gabbard, B. U. Gadre, S. M. Gaebel, J. R. Gair, L. Gammaitoni, S. G. Gaonkar, F. Garufi, G. Gaur, V. Gayathri, N. Gehrels, G. Gemme, E. Genin, A. Gennai, J. George, L. Gergely, V. Germain, S. Ghonge, Abhirup Ghosh, Archisman Ghosh, S. Ghosh, J. A. Giaime, K. D. Giardina, A. Giazotto, K. Gill, A. Glaefke, E. Goetz, L. Gondán, G. González, A. Gopakumar, M. L. Gorodetsky, S. E. Gossan, M. Gosselin, R. Gouaty, A. Grado, C. Graef, M. Granata, A. Grant, S. Gras, C. Gray, G. Greco, A. C. Green, P. Groot, H. Grote, S. Grünewald, G. M. Guidi, X. Guo, Anchal Gupta, Manoj Gupta, K. E. Gushwa, E. K. Gustafson, R. Gustafson, J. J. Hacker, E. D. Hall, G. Hammond, M. Haney, M. M. Hanke, J. Hanks, C. Hanna, M. D. Hannam, J. Hanson, T. Hardwick, J. Harms, I. W. Harry, M. J. Hart, M. T. Hartman, K. Haughian, J. Healy, A. Heidmann, M. C. Heintze, H. Heitmann, P. Hello, M. Hendry, I. S. Heng, J. Hennig, J. Henry, A. W. Heptonstall, M. Heurs, S. Hild, D. Hoak, D. Hofman, K. Holt, D. E. Holz, Philip F. Hopkins, J. Hough, E. A. Houston, E. J. Howell, Yi-Ming Hu, E. A. Huerta, D. Huet, B. Hughey, S. Husa, S. H. Huttner, T. Huynh–Dinh, N. Indik, D. R. Ingram, R. Inta, H. N. Isa, J.‐M. Isac, M. Isi, T. Isogai, B. R. Iyer, K. Izumi, T. Jacqmin, K. Jani, P. Jaranowski, S. Jawahar, F. Jiménez‐Forteza, W. W. Johnson, D. I. Jones, R. W. L. Jones, R. J. G. Jonker, L. Ju, J. Junker, C. V. Kalaghatgi, V. Kalogera, S. Kandhasamy, G. Kang, J. B. Kanner, S. Karki, K. S. Karvinen, M. Kasprzack, E. Katsavounidis, W. Katzman, S. Kaufer, T. Kaur, K. Kawabe, F. Kéfélian, D. Keitel, D. B. Kelley, R. Kennedy, J. S. Key, F. Y. Khalili, I. Khan, S. Khan, Z. Khan, Е. А. Хазанов, N. Kijbunchoo, Chunglee Kim, J C Kim, Whansun Kim, W. Kim, Y. M. Kim, S. J. Kimbrell, E. J. King, Peter King, R. Kirchhoff, J. S. Kissel, Bernd Klein, L. Kleybolte, S. Klimenko, Patrick M. Koch, S. M. Koehlenbeck, S. Koley, V. Kondrashov, A. Kontos, M. Korobko, W. Z. Korth, I. Kowalska, D. B. Kozak, C. Krämer, V. Kringel, B. Krishnan, A. Królak, P. Kumar, S. Kumar, L. Kuo, A. Kutynia, B. D. Lackey, M. Landry, R. N. Lang, J. Lange, B. Lantz, R. K. Lanza, A. Lartaux-Vollard, P. D. Lasky, M. Laxen, A. Lazzarini, C. Lazzaro, P. Leaci, S. Leavey, E. O. Lebigot, Chang‐Hwan Lee, H. K. Lee, Hyung Mok Lee, K. Lee, J. Lehmann, A. Lenon, M. Leonardi, J. R. Leong, N. Leroy, N. Letendre, Y. Levin, T G F Li, A. Libson, T. B. Littenberg, J. Liu, N. A. Lockerbie, A. L. Lombardi, L. T. London, J. E. Lord, M. Lorenzini, V. Loriette, M. Lormand, G. Losurdo, J. D. Lough, Geoffrey Lovelace, H. Lück, A. P. Lundgren, Ryan S. Lynch, Y. Ma, S. Macfoy, B. Machenschalk, M. MacInnis, D. M. Macleod, F. Magaña‐Sandoval, E. Majorana, I. Maksimovic, V. Malvezzi, N. Man, V. Mandic, V. Mangano, G. L. Mansell, M. Mantovani, F. Marchesoni, F. Marion, Szabolcs Márka, Z. Márka, A. S. Markosyan, E. Maros, F. Martelli, L. Martellini, I. W. Martin, Д. В. Мартынов, K. Mason, A. Masserot, T. J. Massinger, M. Masso‐Reid, S. Mastrogiovanni, F. Matichard, L. Matone, N. Mavalvala, N. Mazumder, R. McCarthy, D. E. McClelland, S. McCormick, Casey McGrath, S. C. McGuire, G. McIntyre, J. McIver, D. J. McManus, T. McRae, S. T. McWilliams, D. Meacher, G. D. Meadors, J. Meidam, A. Melatos, G. Mendell, D. Mendoza-Gandara, R. A. Mercer, E. L. Merilh, M. Merzougui, S. Meshkov, C. Messenger, C. Messick, R. Metzdorff, P. M. Meyers, F. Mezzani, H. Miao, C. Michel, H. Middleton, Е. Е. Михайлов, L. Milano, A. L. Miller, B. B. Miller, J. Miller, M. Millhouse, Y. Minenkov, J. Ming, S. Mirshekari, C. Mishra, S. Mitra, O. Miyakawa, G. Mitselmakher, R. Mittleman, A. Moggi, M. Mohan, M. Mondin, M. Montani, B. C. Moore, C. J. Moore, D. Moraru, G. Moreno, S. R. Morriss, B. Mours, C. M. Mow–Lowry, G. Mueller, A. W. Muir, Arunava Mukherjee, D. Mukherjee, Suvodip Mukherjee, N. Mukund, A. Mullavey, J. Münch, E. A. Muñiz, P. G. Murray, A. Mytidis, K. Napier, I. Nardecchia, L. Naticchioni, G. Nelemans, T. J. N. Nelson, M. Néri, M. Nery, A. Neunzert, J. M. Newport, G. Newton, T. Nguyen, A. B. Nielsen, S. Nissanke, A. Nitz, A. Noack, F. Nocera, D. Nolting, M. E. N. Normandin, L. K. Nuttall, J. Oberling, E. Ochsner, E. Oelker, G. H. Ogin, J. J. Oh, S. H. Oh, F. Ohme, M. Oliver, P. Oppermann, Richard J. Oram, B. O’Reilly, R. O’Shaughnessy, D. J. Ottaway, H. Overmier, B. J. Owen, A. E. Pace, J. Page, A. Pai, S. A. Pai, J. R. Palamos, O. Palashov, C. Palomba, A. Pal‐Singh, H. Pan, C. Pankow, F. Pannarale, B. C. Pant, F. Paoletti, A. Paoli, M. A. Papa, H. R. Paris, W. Parker, D. Pascucci, A. Pasqualetti, R. Passaquieti, D. Passuello, B. Patricelli, B. L. Pearlstone, M. Pedraza, R. Pedurand, L. Pekowsky, A. Pele, C. J. Perez, A. Perreca, L. M. Perri, Harald Pfeiffer, M. Phelps, O. J. Piccinni, M. Pichot, F. Piergiovanni, V. Pierro, G. Pillant, L. Pinard, I. M. Pinto, M. Pitkin, M. Poe, R. Poggiani, P. Popolizio, A. Post, J. Powell, J. Prasad, J. W. W. Pratt, V. Predoi, T. Prestegard, M. Prijatelj, M. Principe, S. Privitera, G. A. Prodi, L. Prokhorov, O. Puncken, M. Punturo, P. Puppo, M. Pürrer, H. Qi, J. Qin, S. Qiu, V. Quetschke, E. A. Quintero, R. Quitzow-James, F. J. Raab, D. S. Rabeling, H. Radkins, P. Raffai, S. Raja, C. Rajan, M. Rakhmanov, P. Rapagnani, V. Raymond, M. Razzano, V. Re, J. Read, T. Regimbau, L. Rei, S. Reid, D. H. Reitze, H. Rew, S. D. Reyes, E. Rhoades, F. Ricci, K. Riles, M. Rizzo, N. A. Robertson, R. Robie, F. Robinet, A. Rocchi, L. Rolland, J. G. Rollins, V. J. Roma, R. Romano, J. H. Romie, D. Rosińska, S. Rowan, A. Rüdiger, P. Ruggi, K. Ryan, S. Sachdev, T. Sadecki, L. Sadeghian, Mairi Sakellariadou, L. Salconi, M. Saleem, F. Salemi, A. Samajdar, L. Sammut, L. M. Sampson, E. J. Sanchez, V. Sandberg, J. R. Sanders, B. Sassolas, B. S. Sathyaprakash, P. R. Saulson, O. Sauter, R. L. Savage, A. Sawadsky, P. Schale, Jacob Scheuer, E. E. Schmidt, P. Schmidt, R. Schnabel, R. M. S. Schofield, A. Schönbeck, E. Schreiber, D. Schuette, B. F. Schutz, S. G. Schwalbe, J. Scott, S. M. Scott, D. Sellers, A. S. Sengupta, D. Sentenac, V. Sequino, A. Sergeev, Y. Setyawati, D. A. Shaddock, Thomas Shaffer, M. S. Shahriar, B. Shapiro, P. Shawhan, A. Sheperd, D. H. Shoemaker, D. M. Shoemaker, K. Siellez, X. Siemens, M. Sieniawska, D. Sigg, A D Silva, A. Singer, A. Singh, R. Singh, A. Singhal, A. M. Sintes, B. J. J. Slagmolen, J. R. Smith, R. J. E. Smith, E. J. Son, B. Sorazu, F. Sorrentino, T. Souradeep, A. P. Spencer, A. K. Srivastava, A. Staley, M. Steinke, J. Steinlechner, S. Steinlechner, D. Steinmeyer, B. C. Stephens, S. P. Stevenson, R. Stone, K. A. Strain, N. Straniero, G. Stratta, S. E. Strigin, R. Sturani, A. L. Stuver, T. Z. Summerscales, L. Sun, P. J. Sutton, B. L. Swinkels, M. J. Szczepańczyk, M. Tacca, D. Talukder, D. B. Tanner, M. Tápai, A. Taracchini, R. Taylor, T. Theeg, E. G. Thomas, M. Thomas, P. Thomas, K. A. Thorne, E. Thrane, T. Tippens, Shubhanshu Tiwari, V. Tiwari, K. V. Tokmakov, K. Toland, C. Tomlinson, M. Tonelli, Z. Tornasi, C. I. Torrie, D. Töyrä, F. Travasso, G. Traylor, D. Trifirò, J. Trinastic, M. C. Tringali, L. Trozzo, M. Tse, R. Tso, M. Turconi, D. Tuyenbayev, D. Ugolini, A. L. Urban, S. A. Usman, H. Vahlbruch, G. Vajente, G. Valdes, J. F. J. van den Brand, D. C. Vander‐Hyde, L. van der Schaaf, J. V. van Heijningen, M. Vardaro, Vijay Varma, S. Vass, M. Vasúth, A. Vecchio, G. Vedovato, J. Veitch, P. J. Veitch, K. Venkateswara, G. Venugopalan, D. Verkindt, F. Vetrano, A. Viceré, A. D. Viets, S. Vinciguerra, D. J. Vine, J-Y Vinet, S. Vitale, T. Vo, H. Vocca, C. Vorvick, D. V. Voss, W. D. Vousden, S. P. Vyatchanin, A. R. Wade, L. E. Wade, M. Wade, M. Walker, L. Wallace, S. Walsh, G Wang, H Wang, M Wang, Y Wang, R. L. Ward, J. Warner, M. Wąs, J. Watchi, B. Weaver, L-W Wei, M. Weinert, A. J. Weinstein, R. Weiss, L. Wen, P. Weßels, T. Westphal, K. Wette, J. T. Whelan, B. F. Whiting, C. Whittle, D. R. Williams, R. D. Williams, A. R. Williamson, J. L. Willis, B. Willke, M. H. Wimmer, W. Winkler, C. C. Wipf, H. Wittel, G. Woan, J. Woehler, J. Worden, J. L. Wright, Di Wu, Guanglei Wu, W. Yam, H. Yamamoto, C. C. Yancey, M. J. Yap, Hang Yu, Haocun Yu, M. Yvert, A. Zadrożny, L. Zangrando, M. Zanolin, J-P Zendri, M. Zevin, L Zhang, M Zhang, T. Zhang, Y. Zhang, C. Zhao, M. Zhou, Z. Zhou, S. J. Zhu, X. J. Zhu, M. E. Zucker, J. Zweizig, Michael Boyle, Tony Chu, Daniel A. Hemberger, Ian Hinder, Larry Kidder, Serguei Ossokine, Béla Szilágyi, Saul A. Teukolsky, Alex Vañó-Viñuales
Bibliographic record
VenueClassical and Quantum Gravity · 2017
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEarth and Planetary Sciences
TopicSeismic Imaging and Inversion Techniques
Canadian institutionsCanadian Institute for Theoretical AstrophysicsUniversity of Toronto
FundersDivision of Human Resource DevelopmentAgencia Estatal de InvestigaciónAustralian Research CouncilScience and Technology Facilities CouncilIstituto Nazionale di Fisica NucleareInstitut des Origines de LyonMinistero dello Sviluppo EconomicoMinistry of Education, IndiaCalifornia State University, FullertonNational Research Foundation of KoreaRoyal SocietyMinisterio de Economía y CompetitividadCouncil of Scientific and Industrial Research, IndiaCentre National de la Recherche ScientifiqueIndustry CanadaFundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São PauloGovern de les Illes BalearsNederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk OnderzoekNational Research FoundationEuropean CommissionRussian Foundation for Basic ResearchLeverhulme TrustScottish Funding CouncilScottish Universities Physics AllianceHungarian Scientific Research FundCompute CanadaScience and Engineering Research BoardNational Science FoundationSherman Fairchild FoundationKavli FoundationResearch Corporation for Science Advancement
KeywordsPhysicsSystematicsInterpretation (philosophy)WaveformTheoretical physicsQuantum mechanics
Abstract
Abstract Parameter estimates of GW150914 were obtained using Bayesian inference, based on three semi-analytic waveform models for binary black hole coalescences. These waveform models differ from each other in their treatment of black hole spins, and all three models make some simplifying assumptions, notably to neglect sub-dominant waveform harmonic modes and orbital eccentricity. Furthermore, while the models are calibrated to agree with waveforms obtained by full numerical solutions of Einstein’s equations, any such calibration is accurate only to some non-zero tolerance and is limited by the accuracy of the underlying phenomenology, availability, quality, and parameter-space coverage of numerical simulations. This paper complements the original analyses of GW150914 with an investigation of the effects of possible systematic errors in the waveform models on estimates of its source parameters. To test for systematic errors we repeat the original Bayesian analysis on mock signals from numerical simulations of a series of binary configurations with parameters similar to those found for GW150914. Overall, we find no evidence for a systematic bias relative to the statistical error of the original parameter recovery of GW150914 due to modeling approximations or modeling inaccuracies. However, parameter biases are found to occur for some configurations disfavored by the data of GW150914: for binaries inclined edge-on to the detector over a small range of choices of polarization angles, and also for eccentricities greater than ∼0.05. For signals with higher signal-to-noise ratio than GW150914, or in other regions of the binary parameter space (lower masses, larger mass ratios, or higher spins), we expect that systematic errors in current waveform models may impact gravitational-wave measurements, making more accurate models desirable for future observations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
metaresearch head score (Codex)0.004
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.024
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.018
Threshold uncertainty score0.035
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.024 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
Opus teacher head0.018
GPT teacher head0.236
Teacher spread0.218 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation status
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".
Quick stats
Citations147
Published2017
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes