The importance of domestic football leagues to international performance: predicting FIFA points
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper estimates the importance of domestic professional and semi-professional football clubs to the performance of national team sides in earning FIFA points. It is likely the case that the pathway to further development and a spot on the national team for a young player is, at least initially, through a domestic football league. Yet the stage of development of football leagues differs markedly across nations. This paper finds that the presence and development of these leagues is a significant contributor to FIFA points for the national side, but with diminishing returns. Most recently, the largest effect is found for the nations that play in the African (CAF) and Oceania (OFC) zones, while the other four zones (AFC, CONCACAF, CONMEBOL and UEFA) share smaller positive effects. Even in the presence of limiting economic and demographic factors, the road to international football success is through the development of domestic leagues.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it