Bibliographic record
Abstract
This chapter examines the problem of evaluating policies with either risky or uncertain consequences. Under risk, the probabilities are known and agreed, whereas under uncertainty, probabilities are subjective and subject to disagreement. In the case of risk, Harsanyi’s Social Aggregation Theorem derives a representation of social utility as a weighted sum of individual utilities. But when there is uncertainty, two different and conflicting evaluation criteria, that is, ex ante and ex post, become available. The chapter explores this problem and sketches solutions. Similarly, when equality becomes the guiding question, there is a tension between ex ante and ex post evaluations, each leading to a conceptual loss, and the chapter explores solutions given to this further problem. It also covers Harsanyi’s Impartial Observer Theorem and its recent developments, and discusses the question raised by Sen of whether the weighted sum of individual utilities obtained by Harsanyi makes genuine utilitarian sense.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".