Improving epidemic size prediction through stable reconstruction of disease parameters by reduced iteratively regularized Gauss–Newton algorithm
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Classical compartmental epidemic models of infectious diseases track the dynamic transition of individuals between different epidemiological states or risk groups. Reliable quantification of various transmission pathways in these models is paramount for optimal resource allocation and successful design of public health intervention programs. However, with limited epidemiological data available in the case of an emerging disease, simple phenomenological models based on a smaller number of parameters can play an important role in our quest to make forward projections of possible outbreak scenarios. In this paper, we employ the generalized Richards model for stable numerical estimation of the epidemic size (defined as the total number of infections throughout the epidemic) and its turning point using case incidence data of the early epidemic growth phase. The minimization is carried out by what we call the Reduced Iteratively Regularized Gauss–Newton (RIRGN) algorithm, a problem-oriented numerical scheme that takes full advantage of the specific structure of the non-linear operator at hand. The convergence analysis of the RIRGN method is suggested and numerical simulations are conducted with real case incidence data for the 2014–15 Ebola epidemic in West Africa. We show that the proposed RIRGN provides a stable algorithm for early estimation of turning points using simple phenomenological models with limited data.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it