Applying Fuzzy Clustering to a Multimodel Ensemble for U.S. East Coast Winter Storms: Scenario Identification and Forecast Verification
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract This article introduces a method for objectively separating and validating forecast scenarios within a large multimodel ensemble for the medium-range (3–7 day) forecasts of extratropical cyclones impacting the U.S. East Coast. The method applies fuzzy clustering to the principal components (PCs) of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis on mean sea level pressure (MSLP) from a 90-member combination of the global ensembles from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, the Canadian Meteorological Center, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Two representative cases are presented to illustrate the applications of this method. Application to the 26–28 January 2015 event demonstrates that the forecast scenarios determined by the fuzzy clustering method are well separated and consistent in different state variables (i.e., MSLP, 500-hPa geopotential height, and total precipitation). The fuzzy clustering method and an existing ensemble sensitivity method are applied to the 26–28 December 2010 event to investigate forecast uncertainty, which demonstrates that these two methods are complementary to each other and can be used in the operations together to track the evolution of forecast uncertainty. For past cases one can define a cluster close to the analysis based on the projection of the analysis onto the PC base of clustering. This analysis group is validated using conventional validation metrics for both cases examined, and this analysis group has fewer errors than the other groups as well as the multimodel ensemble mean and individual model means.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it