Remittances as aid following major sudden‐onset natural disasters
Bibliographic record
Abstract
There is a general assumption, based on macroeconomic studies, that remittances will rise following major sudden-onset natural disasters. This is confirmed by a few assessments involving country-specific research, and usually short-term data. This study, questioning conventional wisdom, reviewed and graphed annual and quarterly remittance flows using International Monetary Fund and World Bank data from 2000-14 for 12 countries that confronted 18 major natural disasters. It found that, regardless of event type, annual remittances rose steadily from 2000-14 except for after the 2008-09 financial crisis. Post disaster, there was a quarterly increase in the majority of cases (confirming previous research) but there was seldom an annual increase in the year of the disaster greater than the average annual increase in 2000-14. It appears that remittance senders rush to provide assistance after a natural disaster, but since their own financial situation has not changed, the immediate increase is compensated by a later decrease.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".