Feature selective temporal prediction of Alzheimer's disease progression using hippocampus surface morphometry
Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Prediction of Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression based on baseline measures allows us to understand disease progression and has implications in decisions concerning treatment strategy. To this end, we combine a predictive multi-task machine learning method (cFSGL) with a novel MR-based multivariate morphometric surface map of the hippocampus (mTBM) to predict future cognitive scores of patients. METHODS: Previous work has shown that a multi-task learning framework that performs prediction of all future time points simultaneously (cFSGL) can be used to encode both sparsity as well as temporal smoothness. The authors showed that this method is able to predict cognitive outcomes of ADNI subjects using FreeSurfer-based baseline MRI features, MMSE score demographic information and ApoE status. Whilst volumetric information may hold generalized information on brain status, we hypothesized that hippocampus specific information may be more useful in predictive modeling of AD. To this end, we applied a multivariate tensor-based parametric surface analysis method (mTBM) to extract features from the hippocampal surfaces. RESULTS: We combined mTBM features with traditional surface features such as middle axis distance, the Jacobian determinant as well as 2 of the Jacobian principal eigenvalues to yield 7 normalized hippocampal surface maps of 300 points each. By combining these 7 × 300 = 2100 features together with the previous ~350 features, we illustrate how this type of sparsifying method can be applied to an entire surface map of the hippocampus that yields a feature space that is 2 orders of magnitude larger than what was previously attempted. CONCLUSIONS: By combining the power of the cFSGL multi-task machine learning framework with the addition of AD sensitive mTBM feature maps of the hippocampus surface, we are able to improve the predictive performance of ADAS cognitive scores 6, 12, 24, 36 and 48 months from baseline.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".