Analysis of microseismic cluster locations based on the evolution of mining-induced stresses
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Numerical modelling is increasingly being used in the mining industry as part of the planning process. Its areas of application range from the estimation of in situ stresses at planned locations of underground facilities, to the effects of stope sequence alternatives on drift instability. In terms of the size of their study area, numerical models can range from a section of a given level to mine-wide dimensions, with an increase in complexity and input information requirements. Microseismic activities induced by mining operations can be studied using mine-wide numerical models that have been properly calibrated. In this paper, mining-induced seismicity at the Vale Garson Mine is examined between 2006 and 2008 with a numerical model constructed in FLAC3D. Two sets of microseismic activities are used as a basis of the study; events from the microseismic database with energy outputs greater than 100 kJ, and events that have resulted in rockbursts within developments, regardless of their energy outputs, for a total of 24 events. In the first phase of the study, the coordinates and location error of each event, as obtained from the microseismic database, are used to construct a location cube defining the maximum boundaries within which the actual coordinates must lie. Based on the 24 location cubes plotted, four microseismic clusters are identified. In the second phase, the mine-wide model is calibrated based on laboratory results of rock samples, borehole data of rock mass properties, and an in situ stress measurement point on 4900L (1,495 m). The historical stope sequence followed at the mine is replicated in the model from 2001 to 2008. Mining-induced stresses within the location cubes of two clusters are examined using the maximum shear stress, brittle shear ratio, and the continuous change in differential stress (CC-DS) when compared to pre-mining conditions. It is shown that all event location cubes studied register an abrupt increase in CC-DS some time before or during the occurrence of that event. In the final phase, the most microseismically active zone in one of the geological units is compared to relatively quiet zones in terms of CC-DS conditions. It is shown that the CC-DS values are mostly constant in the latter zone, while they typically undergo abrupt and sudden changes in the active one prior to microseismic events. Hence, a new method of analysis with the potential of predicting the location of microseismic clusters is introduced.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it