Insect Development, Thermal Plasticity and Fitness Implications in Changing, Seasonal Environments
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Historical data show that recent climate change has caused advances in seasonal timing (phenology) in many animals and plants, particularly in temperate and higher latitude regions. The population and fitness consequences of these phenological shifts for insects and other ectotherms have been heterogeneous: warming can increase development rates and the number of generations per year (increasing fitness), but can also lead to seasonal mismatches between animals and their resources and increase exposure to environmental variability (decreasing fitness). Insect populations exhibit local adaptation in their developmental responses to temperature, including lower developmental thresholds and the thermal requirements to complete development, but climate change can potentially disrupt seasonal timing of juvenile and adult stages and alter population fitness. We investigate these issues using a global dataset describing how insect developmental responds to temperature via two traits: lower temperature thresholds for development (T0) and the cumulative degree-days required to complete development (G). As suggested by previous analyses, T0 decreases and G increases with increasing (absolute) latitude; however, these traits and the relationship between G and latitude varies significantly among taxonomic orders. The mean number of generations per year (a metric of fitness) increases with both decreasing T0 and G, but the effects of these traits on fitness vary strongly with latitude, with stronger selection on both traits at higher (absolute) latitudes. We then use the traits to predict developmental timing and temperatures for multiple generations within seasons and across years (1970-2010). Seasonality drives developmental temperatures to peak mid-season and for generation lengths to decline across seasons, particularly in temperate regions. We predict that climate warming has advanced phenology and increased the number of generations, particularly at high latitudes. The magnitude of increases in developmental temperature varies little across latitude. Increases in the number of seasonal generations have been greatest for populations experiencing the greatest phenological advancements and warming. Shifts in developmental rate and timing due to climate change will have complex implications for selection and fitness in seasonal environments.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it