Visual comparison of two data sets: Do people use the means and the variability?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In our everyday lives, we are required to make decisions based upon our statistical intuitions. Often, these involve the comparison of two groups, such as luxury versus family cars and their suitability. Research has shown that the mean difference affects judgements where two sets of data are compared, but the variability of the data has only a minor influence, if any at all. However, prior research has tended to present raw data as simple lists of values. Here, we investigated whether displaying data visually, in the form of parallel dot plots, would lead viewers to incorporate variability information. In Experiment 1, we asked a large sample of people to compare two fictional groups (children who drank ‘Brain Juice’ versus water) in a one-shot design, where only a single comparison was made. Our results confirmed that only the mean difference between the groups predicted subsequent judgements of how much they differed, in line with previous work using lists of numbers. In Experiment 2, we asked each participant to make multiple comparisons, with both the mean difference and the pooled standard deviation varying across data sets they were shown. Here, we found that both sources of information were correctly incorporated when making responses. Taken together, we suggest that increasing the salience of variability information, through manipulating this factor across items seen, encourages viewers to consider this in their judgements. Such findings may have useful applications for best practices when teaching difficult concepts like sampling variation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.019 | 0.167 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.012 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".