Projections of primary liver cancer to 2030 in 30 countries worldwide
Why is this work in the frame?
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame — the usual design — would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.
Machine scores (provisional)
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
- Teacher spread
- 0.294 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
- Validation status
score_only:v0-immature-baseline· verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it
Abstract
Primary liver cancer (PLC) is the sixth most common cancer worldwide and the second most common cause of cancer death. Future predictions can inform health planners and raise awareness of the need for cancer control action. We predicted the future burden of PLC in 30 countries around 2030. Incident cases of PLC (International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, C22) were obtained from 30 countries for 1993-2007. We projected new PLC cases to 2030 using age-period-cohort models (NORDPRED software). Age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated by country and sex. Increases in new cases and rates of PLC are projected in both sexes. The largest increases in rates are, among men, in Norway (2.9% per annum), US whites (2.6%), and Canada (2.4%) and, among women, in the United States (blacks 4.0%), Switzerland (3.4%), and Germany (3.0%). The projected declines are in China, Japan, Singapore, and parts of Europe (e.g., Estonia, Czech Republic, Slovakia). A 35% increase in the number of new cases annually is expected compared to 2005. This increasing burden reflects both increasing rates (and the underlying prevalence of risk factors) and demographic changes. Japan is the only country with a predicted decline in the net number of cases and annual rates by 2030. Conclusion: Our reporting of a projected increase in PLC incidence to 2030 in 30 countries serves as a baseline for anticipated declines in the longer term through the control of hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus infections by vaccination and treatment; however, the prospect that rising levels of obesity and its metabolic complications may lead to an increased risk of PLC that potentially offsets these gains is a concern. (Hepatology 2018;67:600-611).
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
The record
- Venue
- Hepatology
- Topic
- Liver Disease Diagnosis and Treatment
- Field
- Medicine
- Canadian institutions
- —
- Funders
- National Cancer InstituteNational Institutes of HealthWorld Health Organization
- Keywords
- MedicineCohortDemographyChinaIncidence (geometry)Liver cancerDeveloped countryCancerMortality rateEnvironmental healthGeographyPopulationSurgeryPathologyInternal medicine
- Has abstract in OpenAlex
- yes