Two-stage maximum likelihood approach for item-level missing data in regression
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Psychologists use scales comprised of multiple items to measure underlying constructs. Missing data on such scales often occur at the item level, whereas the model of interest to the researcher is at the composite (scale score) level. Existing analytic approaches cannot easily accommodate item-level missing data when models involve composites. A very common practice in psychology is to average all available items to produce scale scores. This approach, referred to as available-case maximum likelihood (ACML), may produce biased parameter estimates. Another approach researchers use to deal with item-level missing data is scale-level full information maximum likelihood (SL-FIML), which treats the whole scale as missing if any item is missing. SL-FIML is inefficient and it may also exhibit bias. Multiple imputation (MI) produces the correct results using a simulation-based approach. We study a new analytic alternative for item-level missingness, called two-stage maximum likelihood (TSML; Savalei & Rhemtulla, Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, 42(4), 405-431. 2017). The original work showed the method outperforming ACML and SL-FIML in structural equation models with parcels. The current simulation study examined the performance of ACML, SL-FIML, MI, and TSML in the context of univariate regression. We demonstrated performance issues encountered by ACML and SL-FIML when estimating regression coefficients, under both MCAR and MAR conditions. Aside from convergence issues with small sample sizes and high missingness, TSML performed similarly to MI in all conditions, showing negligible bias, high efficiency, and good coverage. This fast analytic approach is therefore recommended whenever it achieves convergence. R code and a Shiny app to perform TSML are provided.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.122 | 0.443 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it