Bayesian Inference for Three Bivariate Beta Binomial Models
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: This paper considers three two-dimensional beta binomial models previously introduced in the literature. These were proposed as candidate models for modelling forms of correlated and overdispersed bivariate count data. However, the first model has a complicated form of bivariate probability mass function involving a generalized hypergeometric function and the remaining two do not have closed forms of probability mass functions and are not amenable to analysis using maximum likelihood. This limited their applicability. Objective: In this paper, we will discuss how the Bayesian analyses of these models may go forward using Markov chain Monte Carlo and data augmentation. Results: An illustrative example having to do with student achievement in two related university courses is included. Posterior and posterior predictive inferences and predictive information criteria are discussed.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.010 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it