SWMF Global Magnetosphere Simulations of January 2005: Geomagnetic Indices and Cross‐Polar Cap Potential
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We simulated the entire month of January 2005 using the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) with observed solar wind data as input. We conducted this simulation with and without an inner magnetosphere model and tested two different grid resolutions. We evaluated the model's accuracy in predicting K p , S Y M ‐ H , A L , and cross‐polar cap potential (CPCP). We find that the model does an excellent job of predicting the S Y M ‐ H index, with a root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) of 17–18 nT. K p is predicted well during storm time conditions but overpredicted during quiet times by a margin of 1 to 1.7 K p units. A L is predicted reasonably well on average, with an RMSE of 230–270 nT. However, the model reaches the largest negative A L values significantly less often than the observations. The model tended to overpredict CPCP, with RMSE values on the order of 46–48 kV. We found the results to be insensitive to grid resolution, with the exception of the rate of occurrence for strongly negative A L values. The use of the inner magnetosphere component, however, affected results significantly, with all quantities except CPCP improved notably when the inner magnetosphere model was on.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it