Burning bridges: why don’t organised crime groups pull back from violent conflicts?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Dominant theories of organised crime assume that criminal organisations which operate in extremely violent markets do so because they consider it financially cost-effective. This article contends that by using increasingly violent actions intended to deter competitors and government forces, criminal organisations sometimes eliminate their exit option, making the penalties for withdrawal to a less violent strategy significantly worse than those of continued violence. Based on a systematic examination of footage of public statements by 18 former associates of two Mexican organised crime groups (OCGs), La Familia Michoacana (LFM) and its offshoot Los Caballeros Templarios (LCT), this article argues that through gradual increases in their use of violence, these groups reached a ‘point of no return’. After reaching this point, desisting from further violence escalation became more hazardous than pursuing a violent path, even when the latter did not align with the organisations’ business interests.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.008 | 0.058 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.007 | 0.016 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.008 | 0.010 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.010 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".