Stop and Go: Explaining the Timing of Intermittency in Criminal Careers
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Few offenders maintain a linear or constant path in their criminal activities; instead, zigzag paths characterize most criminal careers. The present study seeks to understand the dynamics of such intermittent cycles and examines the effect of direct experience with the justice system and offender success in criminal ventures on the likelihood that offenders will interrupt and then restart their illegal activities. Using the method of life history calendars, the study is based on detailed criminal career data from 172 offenders involved in lucrative forms of crime. Results show the relevance and complementarity of sanctions and dimensions of criminal achievement in understanding an offending path. The research design highlights the importance of considering the timing of circumstances in understanding zigzag paths.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it