DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPLICATIONS OF A NATIONAL CO<sub>2</sub>TAX IN THE U.S. ACROSS INCOME CLASSES AND REGIONS: A MULTI-MODEL OVERVIEW
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper presents a multi-model assessment of the distributional impacts of carbon pricing. A set of harmonized representative CO 2 taxes and tax revenue recycling schemes is implemented in five large-scale economy-wide general equilibrium models. Recycling schemes include various combinations of uniform transfers to households and labor and capital income tax reductions. Particular focus is put on equity — the distribution of impacts across household incomes — and efficiency, evaluated in terms of household welfare. Despite important differences in the assumptions underlying the models, we find general agreement regarding the ranking of recycling schemes in terms of both efficiency and equity. All models identify a clear trade-off between efficient but regressive capital tax reductions and progressive but costly uniform transfers to households; all agree upon the inferiority of labor tax reductions in terms of welfare efficiency; and all agree that different combinations of capital tax reductions and household transfers can be used to balance efficiency and distributional concerns. A subset of the models go further and find that equity concerns, particularly regarding the impact of the tax on low income households, can be alleviated without sacrificing much of the double-dividend benefits offered by capital tax rebates. There is, however, less agreement regarding the progressivity of CO 2 taxation net of revenue recycling. Regionally, the models agree that abatement and welfare impacts will vary considerably across regions of the U.S. and generally agree on their broad geographical distribution. There is, however, little agreement regarding the regions which would profit more from the various recycling schemes.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it