Climate change and sea ice: Shipping in Hudson Bay, Hudson Strait, and Foxe Basin (1980–2016)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The seasonally ice-covered waters of Hudson Bay, James Bay, Foxe Basin, and Hudson Strait (“the study area”) are bordered by 39 communities with a total population of roughly 50,000 people, most of whom are Inuit or Cree. Sea ice is a cornerstone of the environment and culture of the study area but is also the main barrier to shipping traffic, which has been growing in the area. This paper presents a review of sea ice and shipping in the study area and an analysis of shipping accessibility as represented by the timing of breakup, freeze-up, and the open water season in its offshore and local waters. Offshore ice timing was analyzed using passive microwave-based data for 1980–2014; local ice timing near Rankin Inlet, Churchill, Kuujjuarapik/Whapmagoostui, and Salluit was examined using Canadian Ice Service ice charts for 1996–2016. Open water was defined using sea ice concentration thresholds of ≤15% (offshore) or <20% (local) in an attempt to represent accessible conditions for open water shipping vessels. The results for both offshore and local waters display considerable spatial variability. For offshore waters, breakup currently occurs between 17 May and 19 August and freeze-up occurs between 22 October and 30 December, with overall trends (1980–2014) of +0.58 days year–1 towards an earlier breakup, +0.47 days year–1 towards a later freeze-up, and +0.97 days year–1 towards a longer open water season. Also, significant relationships amongst breakup and freeze-up were observed. For local waters, the 1996–2016 average open water season at the four communities varied between 112.7 days (Churchill) and 154.7 days (Kuujjuarapik/Whapmagoostui). Ultimately, shipping accessibility to Rankin Inlet, Churchill, and Salluit appears to be limited by their local ice timing, while accessibility to Kuujjuarapik/Whapmagoostui appears to be limited by ice timing in northeastern Hudson Bay.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".