Correcting for 16S rRNA gene copy numbers in microbiome surveys remains an unsolved problem
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The 16S ribosomal RNA gene is the most widely used marker gene in microbial ecology. Counts of 16S sequence variants, often in PCR amplicons, are used to estimate proportions of bacterial and archaeal taxa in microbial communities. Because different organisms contain different 16S gene copy numbers (GCNs), sequence variant counts are biased towards clades with greater GCNs. Several tools have recently been developed for predicting GCNs using phylogenetic methods and based on sequenced genomes, in order to correct for these biases. However, the accuracy of those predictions has not been independently assessed. Here, we systematically evaluate the predictability of 16S GCNs across bacterial and archaeal clades, based on ∼ 6,800 public sequenced genomes and using several phylogenetic methods. Further, we assess the accuracy of GCNs predicted by three recently published tools (PICRUSt, CopyRighter, and PAPRICA) over a wide range of taxa and for 635 microbial communities from varied environments. We find that regardless of the phylogenetic method tested, 16S GCNs could only be accurately predicted for a limited fraction of taxa, namely taxa with closely to moderately related representatives (≲15% divergence in the 16S rRNA gene). Consistent with this observation, we find that all considered tools exhibit low predictive accuracy when evaluated against completely sequenced genomes, in some cases explaining less than 10% of the variance. Substantial disagreement was also observed between tools (R2<0.5) for the majority of tested microbial communities. The nearest sequenced taxon index (NSTI) of microbial communities, i.e., the average distance to a sequenced genome, was a strong predictor for the agreement between GCN prediction tools on non-animal-associated samples, but only a moderate predictor for animal-associated samples. We recommend against correcting for 16S GCNs in microbiome surveys by default, unless OTUs are sufficiently closely related to sequenced genomes or unless a need for true OTU proportions warrants the additional noise introduced, so that community profiles remain interpretable and comparable between studies.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it