Demand Heterogeneity in Platform Markets: Implications for Complementors
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
While two-sided platforms (e.g., video game consoles) depend on complements (e.g., games) for their success, the success of complements is also influenced by platform-level dynamics. Research suggests that greater platform adoption benefits complements by providing more potential users, but this assumes that platform adopters are homogeneous. We build on extensive research exploring the heterogeneity between early and late platform adopters to identify counterintuitive dynamics for complements. Complements launched early in a platform’s life cycle face an audience entirely of early platform adopters, whereas later-launching complements face a mixed audience of both early and late adopters, and we argue that differences in preferences and behavior between early and late adopters affect whether complements will succeed and which types will be most successful. We explore these dynamics in the context of the console video game industry using a unique data set of 2,918 video games released in the United Kingdom from 2000 to 2007. We show that despite the increase in the potential user pool as the platform evolves, video games launched later in the platform life cycle realize lower sales than those launched earlier. While increased competition explains part of this effect, we show substantial evidence consistent with our theory of preference differences between early and late adopters. This includes the finding that the negative effect is stronger for novel games and that the gap between popular and less popular complements widens as later adopters move into the platform, consistent with late adopters being risk averse and seeking to avoid purchasing mistakes. The e-companion is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.2017.1183 .
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it