Is the Parti Québécois Bound to Disappear? A Study of the Current Generational Dynamics of Electoral Behaviour in Quebec
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract In Quebec, the setback of the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the last 2014 provincial election testifies of a continuous decline of the party since the 1995 referendum defeat. With now only 25 per cent of vote shares, the question arises: Is the PQ bound to disappear? This article examines the support for the PQ across different generations, and tests explanations for these varying levels of support. The results show that the attitudinal profile of millennials is particularly distinct from that of baby boomers on several dimensions, but that generation X is not so different from the boomers. We demonstrate that the decline of the PQ in 2014 was mostly concentrated among millennials, who were less inclined to see the project of sovereignty as a priority and less likely to support the incumbent PQ government's controversial proposal to adopt a Charter of Quebec Values. We conclude by examining how the results of the study can shed light on the PQ's future prospects.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".