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Record W2801828415 · doi:10.1001/jama.2018.10060

Global Mortality From Firearms, 1990-2016

2018· article· en· W2801828415 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenueJAMA · 2018
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicGun Ownership and Violence Research
Canadian institutionsUniversity of British ColumbiaSickKids FoundationHospital for Sick ChildrenUniversity of Toronto
FundersMedical Research CouncilCollege of Medicine, Seoul National UniversitySchool of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Cape TownSchool of Medicine, University of Alabama at BirminghamDamietta UniversityWestern Sydney UniversityLorestan University of Medical SciencesAlborz University of Medical SciencesUniversity of PeradeniyaXiamen UniversityNorwegian Institute of Public HealthAddis Ababa UniversityAll-India Institute of Medical SciencesUniversidade Federal de Minas GeraisUniversity of Cape TownTampereen YliopistoUniversity of HaifaUniversidade Federal de SergipeHaramaya UniversityInyuvesi Yakwazulu-NataliTaipei Medical UniversityShiraz University of Medical SciencesUnited Nations Population FundKarolinska InstitutetHospital de Clínicas de Porto AlegreMekelle UniversityGeorg-August-Universität GöttingenSeoul National UniversityUniversidade do PortoBundesministerium für GesundheitUniversidad Nacional de ColombiaYonsei UniversitySouth African Medical Research CouncilGriffith UniversityAhmadu Bello UniversityUniversitas Negeri SemarangShanghai Jiao Tong UniversityMaragheh University of Medical SciencesUniversiteit StellenboschPublic Health EnglandTrường Đại học Duy TânIran University of Medical SciencesTehran University of Medical Sciences and Health ServicesUniversidade Federal do Rio Grande do SulHarvard UniversityChildren’s Hospital of Wisconsin Research InstituteNational Center for Child Health and DevelopmentRMIT UniversityUniversity College LondonCase Western Reserve UniversityImperial College LondonUniversity of WashingtonErasmus Universitair Medisch Centrum RotterdamMurdoch Children's Research InstituteSaint Paul's Hospital Millennium Medical CollegeShiraz UniversityHelsingin YliopistoDeakin UniversityUniversity of West FloridaBall State UniversityJordan University of Science and TechnologyUniverzita Komenského v BratislaveLunds UniversitetKing's College London
KeywordsMedicineHomicideInjury preventionPoison controlDemographySuicide preventionOccupational safety and healthPer capitaMortality rateHuman factors and ergonomicsConfidence intervalEnvironmental healthSurgeryPopulation

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Importance: Understanding global variation in firearm mortality rates could guide prevention policies and interventions. Objective: To estimate mortality due to firearm injury deaths from 1990 to 2016 in 195 countries and territories. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study used deidentified aggregated data including 13 812 location-years of vital registration data to generate estimates of levels and rates of death by age-sex-year-location. The proportion of suicides in which a firearm was the lethal means was combined with an estimate of per capita gun ownership in a revised proxy measure used to evaluate the relationship between availability or access to firearms and firearm injury deaths. Exposures: Firearm ownership and access. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cause-specific deaths by age, sex, location, and year. Results: Worldwide, it was estimated that 251 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 195 000-276 000) people died from firearm injuries in 2016, with 6 countries (Brazil, United States, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Guatemala) accounting for 50.5% (95% UI, 42.2%-54.8%) of those deaths. In 1990, there were an estimated 209 000 (95% UI, 172 000 to 235 000) deaths from firearm injuries. Globally, the majority of firearm injury deaths in 2016 were homicides (64.0% [95% UI, 54.2%-68.0%]; absolute value, 161 000 deaths [95% UI, 107 000-182 000]); additionally, 27% were firearm suicide deaths (67 500 [95% UI, 55 400-84 100]) and 9% were unintentional firearm deaths (23 000 [95% UI, 18 200-24 800]). From 1990 to 2016, there was no significant decrease in the estimated global age-standardized firearm homicide rate (-0.2% [95% UI, -0.8% to 0.2%]). Firearm suicide rates decreased globally at an annualized rate of 1.6% (95% UI, 1.1-2.0), but in 124 of 195 countries and territories included in this study, these levels were either constant or significant increases were estimated. There was an annualized decrease of 0.9% (95% UI, 0.5%-1.3%) in the global rate of age-standardized firearm deaths from 1990 to 2016. Aggregate firearm injury deaths in 2016 were highest among persons aged 20 to 24 years (for men, an estimated 34 700 deaths [95% UI, 24 900-39 700] and for women, an estimated 3580 deaths [95% UI, 2810-4210]). Estimates of the number of firearms by country were associated with higher rates of firearm suicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.21) and homicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.35). Conclusions and Relevance: This study estimated between 195 000 and 276 000 firearm injury deaths globally in 2016, the majority of which were firearm homicides. Despite an overall decrease in rates of firearm injury death since 1990, there was variation among countries and across demographic subgroups.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.253
Threshold uncertainty score0.999

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.067
GPT teacher head0.403
Teacher spread0.336 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it