Strict and Deep Comparison of Revealed Transit Trip Structure between Computer-Assisted Telephone Interview Household Travel Survey and Smart Cards
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Large sample household travel surveys (HTSs) are an essential tool for the planning of urban transit systems. The progressive adoption by transit agencies of fare collection systems based on smart cards (SCs) has, for the first time, provided opportunities to compare the survey data with detailed, population-level data collected independently. These comparisons have produced some surprising results. Although the underreporting of non-home-based and off-peak trips was to be expected, the significant overestimation of transit use during peak periods was not anticipated. Using the Greater Montreal Area as a case study, this paper performs a strict and deep comparison of computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) HTS data and SC data across several dimensions: transit agency usage, departure time from home, number of trips per traveler, and activity durations. The analysis reveals that the HTS constitutes a simplified portrayal of transit usage patterns. Non-home-based trips and trips made for activities of short duration are underrepresented in the survey data, leading to an underestimation of off-peak travel by transit. In addition, the systematic overestimation of peak period transit use appears to be because of the corrective weighting of the 20–29 demographic which is notoriously difficult to reach in a telephone-based household survey.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it