Model-Based Forecasting of Agricultural Crop Disease Risk at the Regional Scale, Integrating Airborne Inoculum, Environmental, and Satellite-Based Monitoring Data
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Crop diseases have the potential to cause devastating epidemics that threaten the world's food supply and vary widely in their dispersal pattern, prevalence, and severity. It remains unclear what the impact disease will have on sustainable crop yields in the future. Agricultural stakeholders are increasingly under pressure to adapt their decision-making to make more informed and efficient use of irrigation water, fertilizers, and pesticides. They also face increasing uncertainty in how best to respond to competing health, environment, and (sustainable) development impacts and risks. Disease dynamics involves a complex interaction between a host, a pathogen, and their environment, representing one of the largest risks facing the long-term sustainability of agriculture. New airborne inoculum, weather, and satellite-based technology provide new opportunities for combining disease monitoring data and predictive models-but this requires a robust analytical framework. Integrated model-based forecasting frameworks have the potential to improve the timeliness, effectiveness, and foresight for controlling crop diseases, while minimizing economic costs and environmental impacts, and yield losses. The feasibility of this approach is investigated involving model and data selection. It is tested against available disease data collected for wheat stripe (yellow) rust (Puccinia striiformis f.sp. tritici) (Pst) fungal disease within southern Alberta, Canada. Two candidate, stochastic models are evaluated; a simpler, site-specific model, and a more complex, spatially-explicit transmission model. The ability of these models to reproduce an observed infection pattern is tested using two climate datasets with different spatial resolution-a reanalysis dataset (55 km) and weather station network township-aggregated data (10 km). The complex spatially-explicit model using weather station network data had the highest forecast accuracy. A multi-scale airborne surveillance design that provides data would further improve disease risk forecast accuracy under heterogeneous modeling assumptions. In the future, a model-based forecasting approach, if supported with an airborne surveillance monitoring plan, could be made operational to provide agricultural stakeholders with reliable, cost-effective, and near-real-time information for protecting and sustaining crop production against multiple disease threats.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it