Real-time Change Point Detection using On-line Topic Models.
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Detecting changes within an unfolding event in real time from news articles or social media enables to react promptly to serious issues in public safety, public health or natural disasters. In this study, we use on-line Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) to model shifts in topics, and apply on-line change point detection (CPD) algorithms to detect when significant changes happen. We describe an on-line Bayesian change point detection algorithm that we use to detect topic changes from on-line LDA output. Extensive experiments on social media data and news articles show the benefits of on-line LDA versus standard LDA, and of on-line change point detection compared to off-line algorithms. This yields F-scores up to 56% on the detection of significant real-life changes from these document streams.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it