The effect of mammography screening regimen on incidence-based breast cancer mortality
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Incidence-based mortality quantifies the distribution of cancer deaths and life-years lost, according to age at detection. We investigated the temporal distribution of the disease burden, and the effect of starting and stopping ages and interval between screening mammography examinations, on incidence-based mortality. METHODS: Incidence-based mortality was estimated using an established breast cancer simulation model, adapted and validated to simulate breast cancer incidence, screening performance, and delivery of therapies in Canada. Ten strategies were examined, with varying starting age (40 or 50), stopping age (69 or 74), and interval (1, 2, 3 years), and "No Screening." Life-years lost were computed as the difference between model predicted time of breast cancer death and that estimated from life tables. RESULTS: Without screening, 70% of the burden in terms of breast cancer deaths extends between ages 45 and 75. The mean of the distribution of ages of detection of breast cancers that will be fatal in an unscreened population is 61.8 years, while the mean age of detection weighted by the number of life-years lost is 55, a downward shift of 6.8 years. Similarly, the mean age of detection for the distribution of life-years gained through screening is lower than that for breast cancer deaths averted. CONCLUSION: Incidence-based mortality predictions from modeling elucidate the age dependence of the breast cancer burden and can provide guidance for optimizing the timing of screening regimens to achieve maximal impact. Of the regimens studied, the greatest lifesaving effect was achieved with annual screening beginning at age 40.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it