Remote Estimation Over a Packet-Drop Channel With Markovian State
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We investigate a remote estimation problem in which a transmitter observes a Markov source and chooses the power level to transmit it over a time-varying packet-drop channel. The channel is modeled as a channel with Markovian state where the packet drop probability depends on the channel state and the transmit power. A receiver observes the channel output and the channel state and estimates the source realization. The receiver also feeds back the channel state and an acknowledgment for successful reception to the transmitter. We consider two models for the source-finite state Markov chains and first-order autoregressive processes. For the first model, using ideas from team theory, we establish the structure of optimal transmission and estimation strategies and identify a dynamic program to determine optimal strategies with that structure. For the second model, we assume that the noise process has unimodal and symmetric distribution. Using ideas from majorization theory, we show that the optimal transmission strategy is symmetric and monotonic and the optimal estimation strategy is like Kalman filter. Consequently, when there are a finite number of power levels, the optimal transmission strategy may be described using thresholds that depend on the channel state. Finally, we propose a simulation-based approach (renewal Monte Carlo) to compute the optimal thresholds and optimal performance and elucidate the algorithm with an example.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it